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2 Responses to “What is main difficulty for China in next 20 years if China wants to keep the 8% economy growth rate?”

1. Sam says:

   October 13, 2010 at 12:08 am

   i think the property market could be a protential problem…there are many many buildings being built and there are 1000s of empty apartments owned by rich people…the price for normal people is often too high…

   The main thing that could lower the growth rate is if chinese people realise how good it is here…people here work hard because they want to make there country great, most have never been outside of china so cant see how good they are compared to other places…most think they are very much behind the west, they are not.

   Also i think lack of workers could have a large effect on things in the comming 10 years…many people i know are dissatified with life in the big cities and would not mind giving up the 8am-8pm + 1 hr commute lifestyle…even if it means a cut in the money they earn – alot of people dont have time to spend the money they are saving…

   China is a developing country still but it is stronger every year…the growth rate cant stay so high as the last 10 years but i think it will still beat US and Euro
2. Craftylass says:

   October 13, 2010 at 12:21 am

   I’ve listed a few articles below, with snippets from most of them. You’ll need to read the full articles to have a better appreciation for what is being said.

   1. Inflation and corruption

   ” Corruption and inflation could have an “adverse impact” on stability in China, Premier Wen Jiabao warned Sunday, also acknowledging that the people’s thirst for democracy was “irresistible.”

   http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/03102010/24/f-afp-inflation-corruption-impact-china-s-stability-wen.html

   2. Academic fraud

   “Few countries are immune to high-profile frauds. Illegal doping in sports and malfeasance on Wall Street are running scandals in the United States. But in China, fakery in one area in particular — education and scientific research — is pervasive enough that many here worry it could make it harder for the country to climb the next rung on the economic ladder.”

   http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10280/1093333-82.stm

   3. Growing divide between the rich and the poor

   “China’s rural-urban wealth gap was the widest last year since the nation launched its economic transformation three decades ago, state media said Tuesday, amid concerns the disparity could spark unrest.”

   http://www.chinapost.com.tw/business/asia/b-china/2010/03/03/246723/China-rural-urban.htm

   4. “Unbearable” tax burden

   “The Institute of Finance and Trade Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently published “China’s Fiscal Policy Report 2009-2010.” This report shows that in 2009, financial income from taxation accounted for 32.2 percent of China’s gross domestic product (GDP). China’s current per capita income can only be ranked as low to mid-level.

   “According to The World Bank’s standard, a reasonable tax burden for these types of countries should be about 20 percent; however China’s has exceeded 30 percent, which is even higher than high income countries. As a result, China was ranked second on Forbes’ Global Tax Misery Index 2009.”

   http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/content/view/43959/

   5. High unemployment (goes far above and beyond the “official” 4% figure . . . see above about “corruption”)

   http://www.time.com/time/asia/covers/1101020617/cover.html

   “Dexter Roberts wrote recently in BusinessWeek that more than 25% of this year’s university graduates in China have failed to find a job. Meanwhile executives at nearly a hundred multinationals recently told my firm that their biggest challenge for growth is recruiting and retaining talent. At more than one-third of the big businesses we talked to they said their annual employee turnover is 30%. In the U.S. 11% turnover is considered too costly because of the expense of recruiting and training; 9% is just right for getting new ideas into an organization and getting rid of dead wood.”

   http://www.forbes.com/2010/09/07/china-economy-unemployment-leadership-managing-rein_2.html

   There are many other areas that pose difficulties for China. Among them are the needs for educational reform; health care reform; elderly care; the ever-growing gender gap; opportunities for those with disabilities; infrastructure within smaller cities; pollution control; environmental concerns, etc.

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