China in 2020: A New Type of Superpower (Thornton Center Chinese Thinkers)
The rapid pace and grand scale of China’s rise have produced a heady mixture of wonder and consternation in the West. Is China on track to become a superpower? What would that mean for the rest of the world? Economist Hu Angang approaches these questions through analysis of three major dimensions of China’s rise: its overall economic and social development; advances in education, science, and technology (including alternative energy); and the likely complications posed by resource scarcity, environmental degradation, and climate change.
After three decades of unprecedented economic growth, China is now home to the world’s second-largest economy. It is the world’s largest exporter and its second-largest consumer of energy (as well as number one in carbon emissions). Extrapolating from these seismic changes, Hu forecasts that by 2020 China will become a “mature, responsible, and attractive superpower” that will contribute, alongside the European Union, to the “end of the unipolar era dominated by the United States.”
China in 2020 presents a native Chinese perspective on the challenges and opportunities that Beijing will face as its global footprint expands. Through a meticulous examination of China’s development trajectory, Hu Angang explains how his nation—as the world’s largest emerging market—will impact global economic growth, foreign direct investment flows, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions. He proposes a comprehensive strategic framework to guide the next stage of China’s rise, seeking to maximize the country’s positive impact on the world and minimize the negative externalities of its meteoric development.
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China’s aggregate GDP in 2009 was 18.6 times that of 1978, having averaged an annual growth rate of 9.9% over that 31-year time span, the most rapid economic rise the world has seen and exceeding all projections from respected institutions. Over the same period, per capita GDP grew at an average 8.7%/year, leaving it 13.3 times larger than in 1978. It is now the world’s second-largest economy, the world largest exporter, and the 2nd-largest consumer of energy. What China has achieved in these recent decades challenges many of our most deeply held notions about the realities of government and economics. Author Hu reports on its overall economic and social development, advances in education, science and technology, and the likely complications posed by resource scarcity, environmental degradation and climate change.
Hu predicts China’s GDP, using exchange rates, will exceed that of the U.S. between 2015 and 2020. By then it will also have 100% medical insurance for all citizens, over 85% coverage for urban old-age insurance, consume 8% GDP on health, and its citizens will average 10 years of education (now 7.5). Pollution goals include 20% reductions/GDP unit by 2020.
Hu also points out that the the 20 economies which grew fastest during 1978-2008 were all developing countries and regions, and of those 13 implemented 5-year plans. Among the ten economies with the fastest economic growth rate, eight implemented five-year plans.
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